Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.016520 0.018685 0.021029 0.023754 0.026836 0.030216 0.034204
2025-10-19 0.013305 0.016334 0.019890 0.024373 0.029879 0.036430 0.044823
2025-10-26 0.011210 0.014554 0.018702 0.024231 0.031417 0.040456 0.052715
2025-11-02 0.009789 0.013304 0.017867 0.024233 0.032900 0.044313 0.060531
2025-11-09 0.008548 0.012087 0.016865 0.023798 0.033625 0.047091 0.067017
2025-11-16 0.007787 0.011408 0.016474 0.024088 0.035277 0.051169 0.075560
2025-11-23 0.007015 0.010616 0.015816 0.023888 0.036148 0.054140 0.082688
2025-11-30 0.006569 0.010244 0.015712 0.024459 0.038156 0.058880 0.092801
2025-12-07 0.005864 0.009402 0.014814 0.023715 0.038057 0.060378 0.097984
2025-12-14 0.005338 0.008787 0.014200 0.023342 0.038473 0.062657 0.104533
2025-12-21 0.004815 0.008125 0.013450 0.022669 0.038320 0.063975 0.109563
2025-12-28 0.004659 0.008052 0.013642 0.023555 0.040805 0.069783 0.122584
2026-01-04 0.004438 0.007856 0.013623 0.024099 0.042782 0.074945 0.135041
2026-01-11 0.004244 0.007691 0.013642 0.024708 0.044923 0.080567 0.148820
2026-01-18 0.003949 0.007317 0.013261 0.024565 0.045693 0.083803 0.158511
2026-01-25 0.003705 0.007013 0.012978 0.024567 0.046714 0.087554 0.169445
2026-02-01 0.003422 0.006612 0.012481 0.024127 0.046857 0.089671 0.177412
2026-02-08 0.003261 0.006430 0.012378 0.024420 0.048421 0.094573 0.191201
2026-02-15 0.003053 0.006136 0.012036 0.024218 0.048988 0.097585 0.201448
2026-02-22 0.002952 0.006048 0.012087 0.024796 0.051155 0.103896 0.218932
2026-03-01 0.002712 0.005657 0.011506 0.024042 0.050538 0.104556 0.224681
2026-03-08 0.002531 0.005375 0.011122 0.023664 0.050663 0.106728 0.233793
2026-03-15 0.002335 0.005044 0.010614 0.022982 0.050084 0.107378 0.239638